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You are here: Home » News » After Chinese real estate market prosperous times, whose baton pass?

After Chinese real estate market prosperous times, whose baton pass?

Views:0     Author:Distortion seam     Publish Time: 2016-02-25      Origin:Network

 This is the best time, is also the worst time. Whether does the global economic go out the murky shadow? The Chinese Stock market, the debt city, the foreign exchange, the housing market will deduct what kind of story? If after the real estate market froth is disillusioned, who will be the new power which the global economic grows? Please wait!

 

 Introduction: “2016 macroscopic policy enters all attacks is punctual the generation, as attacks take the supplies side, as defends take the demand side, offensive and defensive dynamics can strengthen greatly, following is the property price high fluctuation. The short-term Local authority and the Commercial bank hold the special construction funds and PPP take advantage of loopholes make loans, the market does not need to fight timidly, the opportunity is fleeting, do not prolong contact for a long time, holds sober, light is really.”

 

 1st, global economic: The basic question is hollow and aging, reduces can puncture the question, loose can postpone the question, but did not have the method to be able at present to solve the problem.

 

 In the past 20 year global economic was the formation of wild geese in flight model, grew the engine relay unceasingly. in 1997 the Asian miracle was disillusioned, Internet baton pass; in 2001 the Internet froth was disillusioned, American real estate baton pass; in 2007 the American real estate froth is disillusioned, Chinese real estate baton pass; terminus 2011 the Chinese real estate prosperous times also arrive, the global economic has not had the power all of a sudden, give it the gun (QE) which the policy-maker can not stop only. But the question is, does not have the good engine, adds the multi-accelerators also to be again useless. As soon as in the past the accelerator stepped on gently, the economy could run 100 to step, now steps on also can only run 50 to step.

 

 Future engine in where? Either depends on the new population, either depends on the new technology.

 

 The new labor force may stimulate the real estate demand, reduces the labor force cost, the developed country and China already died of old age, this hope can repose only in India, Southeast Asia and Africa and so on emerging market, but present looked, these country's comprehensive strength is insufficient to receive China's baton far. The new population is not good, can depend on the new technology only, this kind of technology must be revolutionary, now will look like also never. the 3D printing, the shale were mad that can be the innovation only, but is not the revolution.

 

 The genuine name revolution is the steam technology, the electrical technology, information technology such leap. So long as the new technological revolution does not appear, global loose will not stop, the Federal Reserve interest on futures will be extremely careful, European and the Japanese central bank will also have further acts.

 

 2nd, Chinese economy: 2016 will have the rebound possibly, but certain has not reversed.

 

 First, the short period, the first half year economy has in the last few years the rare good scene possibly, we prompt 2016 in the beginning of the year are the capital construction bumper year, core logic are financing deregulate obviously: The storage quantity place debt replacement, platform financing become less crowded + increase two 2,000,000,000,000 (PPP and the special construction funds).

 
 First quarter special impetus credits and so on construction funds, PPP to one's limit already displayed the might, considered again the financial industry high growth (quarter banking industry increase in value according to loan estimate), the real estate policy speeds up the relaxation, first quarter GDP must compared to anticipated good, estimated and last year fourth quarter basic impartial, if in February data credit continued the day quantity, even had the rebound slightly possibly.

 
 The second quarter profit after the first quarter credit to one's limit, the project operation busy season, two meetings the steady growth policy landing, half year crash spending and so on seasonal the factors become whole year best one quarter possibly, lord knows when (in May, 2016) around possibly will have the monthly small high spot, this point and 2014-15 year similar. If the day quantity credit continues in March, then the second quarter economies definitely may break 7.

 

 Second, the cycle, because first half year everybody fights for the fund and the project delivery, the economical possible stamina to be second half year insufficient, before whole year the economy possibly presents, Gao Houdi.

 

 Third, the long period, so long as the supplies side reform has not completed (is mainly produces can, keep in stock and go to release lever), the constitutive downward pressure will not vanish, this year small rebound will not only not bring the reverse, on the contrary will delay possibly produces can go to release lever's time, will increase the economical reverse the difficulty.

 

 3rd, policy trend: Nothing but three kind of selections: The first kind is the radical demand side control (big stimulation, greatly loose), the second kind is balanced the path (to maintain present situation), the third kind is the radical supplies side reform (greatly destroys and greatly establish). The different pathway corresponds is the different interest adjustment actually.

 

 First, if is walks the demand promotion the path, short-term everybody can profit (property prices and so on house price stock price to present froth, enterprise financing expands, worker wages rise), can suffer injury for a long time (property price to revise, enterprise will fall into debt crisis, worker unemployment).

 

 Second, if is walks the supplies side reform the path, short-term everybody can come under the influence (initiative release risk, unemployment can add, property price will fall), but long-term everybody can profit (economy to be prosperous, employment opportunity will increase, wages rise, property price rise).

 

 Third, in the demand side control and between the supplies side reform's balance is actually short-term and the long-term interest balance, future several year main mentality will be the supplies side, but because the midway jolted a while ago is too fierce, central timely will also carry on balanced (steady growth policy frequency in the near future through the demand side to send with day quantity credit), will not let the economy depart the birdcage (to grow 6.5%+ exchange rates 7).

 

 2016 macroscopic control enters all attacks is punctual the generation, as attacks take the supplies side, as defends take the demand side, offensive and defensive dynamics can strengthen greatly. Not only both are not contradictory, moreover may supplementary, must supplementary. On the one hand strengthens the attack in the supplies side, removes the invalid growth, on the other hand strengthens the defense in the demand side, stimulates the valid growth. This kind “the offense and defense has both” the mentality and most recent several years mentality have the obvious difference:

 

 First, is different stresses the demand in 2009-2012 year one, the neglect supplies, for instance, will not look like in 2009 such to do 4,000,000,000,000 and produces can the Great Leap Forward, but will start truely to keep in stock produces energy;

 

 

Second, is different grasps the supplies in 2013-15 year one, the neglect demand, for instance will not look like 43rd article such suddenly Local authority's financing deactivation, but will be moderate deregulates to platform financing and Local authority financing, lenient currency to wide credit, expansion financial deficit.

 

 But it is noteworthy that:

 

 First, Chinese economy victory finally impossible depending on demand side defense, can depend upon the supplies side only the attack.

 

 Second, the attack is not equal to gives up defend, instead must strengthen the defense. The defensive significance does not lie in the win, but lies in the shield, strives for more opportunities for the attack.

 

 Third, the defense cannot compete, will otherwise lay down more hidden dangers. Regarding these years economy, central has early is clear about the judgment, is mainly the constitutive question, but is not the periodic question. If the demand end's stimulation presents the out of control sign, the policy surface certainly will give the child who will not be obedient to make the board.

 

 

 

 Although the short-term credit to one's limit and the steady growth stimulation will bring the property price possibly the rise, does not need to fight timidly, so long as but the economy weak, the enterprise sad, the exchange rate unbalanced fundamental plane will be invariable, then do not prolong contact, will forever keep careful to the high income property, because these properties will either be the cutting edge lick the blood (high risk property), either will be the castle in the air (high release lever brushes returns ratio), the economical, the policy and the exchange rate little slightest sign of trouble possibly will strike back it the primary form, for instance the middle of the last year will go to the release lever, the year's end Federal Reserve interest on futures, the future appears once more possibly makes the board policy.

 
 That proverb, in the property price's high fluctuation time, do not need too to be attached to the high income, light is really, security for on.

 

 5th, debt city:

 

 (1) interest rate debt: In the near future the supplies side uncertainty will eliminate, takes refuge from danger the mood to be weaken, the risk by chance rebound, RMB rate revaluation, returns ratio curve steep, will recommend the reduction to be secular, waits for the better configuration opportunity.

 

 (2) credit debt: Surplus profession credit risks astringent, surplus profession State-owned business spread hopeful contraction; The Private enterprise spread or continues to expand, the main business service not clear Private enterprise bears the brunt. A series of produced can in the policy releasing certain extent alleviate the market to and produces can the surplus profession pessimism, the high income debt did not have the opportunity by no means. The city throws takes the guard finance risk last defense line, still saved the configuration value. But considered the credit risks are only postpone, has not eliminated, the city throws reforming also to have the uncertainty, the configuration which the industry and the city throw secular is not suitable elongates.

 

 6th, stock market:

 

 (1) short-term opportunity is bigger than the risk, international domestic two aspect factor resonating, A share enters the risk to relax the window time. The international aspect, the German silver buy-back property alleviates the market to worry that the Yelun testimony doves is inferior to anticipated freely, but the market obviously postpones, the main petroleum regarding the next time interest on futures anticipated point in time produces the study abroad to agree that has the condition to produce the protocol frozen, international risk factor margin improvement; The domestic aspect, grows dynamics to strengthen, the short rate and the capital outflow obviously steadily anticipated is weaken, two can anticipate that and so on factors cause the market mood to repair gradually, the short-term does not need to fight timidly.

 

 (2) medium and long-term risk is bigger than the opportunity. After the short-term stimulant's effect abates gradually, will present the more corpse enterprises possibly, a higher release lever, the more difficult enterprise profit. The thorough supplies side reform, will not have had the income continually improvement and the cost drops continually. Under this kind of basic judgment, the investor should better not want to prolong contact, momentarily prepares to retreat. Retreats the opportunity actually definitely in the stimulation policy's duration, closely will pay attention to the future the central policy and the economical financial data, macroscopic fundamental plane was more important this year.

 

 7th, exchange rate:

 

 (1) short-term stands firmly. Since the beginning of the year inside and outside the converging attack has caused the exchange rate over modulation, now needs to repair, looking from the outside, to interest on futures anticipation in the call-back, in March the interest on futures probability 50% nearly falls 0 from the beginning of the year; Looking from the interior, to produces worrying radically which can clear out in the call-back, produces can the plan and a series of steady growth measure displayed that the policy was still is balanced the path, but is not unilateral fast clearing out.

 

 (2) intermediate stage depreciation. No matter looking from the economic growth international payment balance, the Renminbi fundamental plane is not weak, but the Renminbi anticipated is very weak, is mainly the earlier period observes closely US dollar to cause the exchange rate overestimation, in the revision overestimation's process, anticipated will enlarge the adjustment the scope, when in particular the central bank release will tolerate the depreciation signal, the market will further be depressed, causes the settlement of exchange wish lowly, to buy collects the wish to be intense. Before the exchange rate touches 7, this kind depressed very difficult to eliminate.

 

 (3) also has the revaluation space for a long time. After the Renminbi completes the periodic adjustment, the stepwise regression constitutive fundamental plane: Behind the Renminbi is still the global leading economical speed-up, the trade surplus, the investment returns ratio, the labor productivity speed-up. So long as China does not have systematic crisis, the Renminbi still had the revaluation space possibly.

 

 8th, real estate: These two years policy is so loose, also has not presented the nationwide house price rise, the real estate fundamental plane had already changed, in the past was falls short of demand, now is the serious supply in excess of demand, therefore the next step price trend was still splits up:

 

 a (1) city: Under the economy a departure date city opportunity are more, the attraction instead rises, a city's house price will also continue strongly. Looked from the zone that Shenzhen Shanghai house price this year runs largely wins Beijing, feedbacks is a fundamental plane not completely, but is the transaction cost difference which the policy causes, Beijing to country five personal income tax executing strictest, next step, if the adjustment tax revenue standard, descends fall the transaction cost, Beijing and disparity between the Shanghai Shenzhen's certainly will make up.

 

 (2) 23 cities: The differentiation will further intensify, the population speed-up will be quick, the stock level is low, the floating population settles down in the demand in a big way, the economic structure good city is more attractive.

 

 9th, artware: The cheap fund are getting more and more, the store of value property are getting fewer and fewer, the artware will receive many possibly as the store of value property pursues holds, scarcest most store of value, must therefore buy scarce do not buy the small advantage. Pays attention to several category of scarce varieties:

 

 (1) China ancient times calligraphy and painting: Yuan Dynasty Zhao Meng 頫, Ni zan, Ming Dynasty Shen Zhou, Wen Zhengming, Tang Yin, Dong Qichang, the clear eight mountain person, Shi Tao, “four kings”, “the Eight Immortals of Yangzhou” and so on works do not have may substitute.

 (2) yellow ormosia henryi: Ming Dynasty yellow ormosia henryi furniture.

 (3) clear three generation of high-quality goods chinaware.

 (4) field Huang Shih: Fujian stone from Mt. Shoushan fujian.

 (5) golden stele develops: Song Yuan ancient book, Song Tuopian.

 (6) Xuande stove.

 (7) contemporary clay modelling, purple sand.

 

 

 

 According to Development and Planning Commission and Ministry of Finance's data, the PPP recommendation project already accumulated now achieves 8,700,000,000,000, we counted the signing amount already 500,000,000,000 to achieve from last year first half year insufficiency close 2,000,000,000,000, consummated, the financing channel development, the transmission service gradually along with the laws and regulations rich, the policy strengthens the support, PPP already started to accelerate to fall to the ground, domain and so on transportation, water supplies, environmental protection PPP projects had bright prospects. Has in the public credit guarantee good project fewer and fewer situations, future will have a public credit participation PPP category of product to be able to become one to invest the channel unsubstitutive.

 

 After reading off the Chinese economy ten judgments, we return to in the first question: After Chinese real estate market prosperous times, whose baton pass?

 
 Looking from the current situation, China has as if laid down the signal which a like Southeast Asia, Japanese, Hong Kong, US's-like real estate crashed, is only the question which when arrived. If the Chinese real estate market prosperous times crossed, that India, Southeast Asia and Africa and so on emerging market whether to have ability to receive China's baton?

 

 

 [has a look at Vietnam's situation first]

 

 The Vietnamese economy will be profiting in its cheap labor leads the export, thus the stimulation economy develops fast. Data released which according to the Vietnamese Statistics Bureau, in 2015 Vietnam GDP (GDP) estimates grows 6.68%, the speed-up creates for 5 years to be highest.

 

 The Asian countries financial circumstance comes under the global second big economy China's influence to have the declining tendency generally, but the Vietnamese economy still could murky obtain the growth in one piece, is mainly depending on the strong export, the external investment and the formidable domestic demand. But Vietnam's question has been the stock price is excessively high as well as the government cannot withstand any big turbulence.

 

 [has a look at India's situation again]

 

 [has a look at Malaysia's situation again]

 

 After three year strong rising, Malaysian these two years economic prospects or large worsening. The factor drops sharply which except the international oil price, the currency large depreciation and the commodity and the service tax introduction will be enormous possibly the Malaysian GDP rate of increment to implicate insufficient to 2015 5%.

 

 On the other hand, the Malaysian currency Ringgit continues to weaken. The domestic political situation's uncertainty and the liquefied natural gas price declined further weakened Malaysia's energy investment, caused the government expenditure to drop, also had certain inhibitory action to the domestic demand.

 

 [finally has a look at Thailand's situation]

 

 Under the Thai central bank repairs in 2016 the state economy growth predicted value to 3.5%, because Thailand trade partner country market is not bright, implicates Thailand to export possibly for the zero growth performance. But because in 2015 the economic growth profits from the public spending, the folk expense and the tourism development, the rate of increment is 2.8% possibly.

 

 Overall, these emerging market country entity also treats the lifting.

 [has a look at Malaysia's situation again]

 

 After three year strong rising, Malaysian these two years economic prospects or large worsening. The factor drops sharply which except the international oil price, the currency large depreciation and the commodity and the service tax introduction will be enormous possibly the Malaysian GDP rate of increment to implicate insufficient to 2015 5%.

 

 On the other hand, the Malaysian currency Ringgit continues to weaken. The domestic political situation's uncertainty and the liquefied natural gas price declined further weakened Malaysia's energy investment, caused the government expenditure to drop, also had certain inhibitory action to the domestic demand.

 

 [finally has a look at Thailand's situation]

 

 Under the Thai central bank repairs in 2016 the state economy growth predicted value to 3.5%, because Thailand trade partner country market is not bright, implicates Thailand to export possibly for the zero growth performance. But because in 2015 the economic growth profits from the public spending, the folk expense and the tourism development, the rate of increment is 2.8% possibly.

 

 Overall, these emerging market country entity also treats the lifting.

 

 On the other hand, speaks of the Chinese real estate market is the prosperous times crossed this topic, can use the crazy word as if only to describe that the Chinese near future the real estate market present situation, will enter the incorrigible real estate market to rise suddenly once again at an urban performance.

 

 Some analyst pointed out that if purchases homes in the not specially far away land sector, 3,000,000 already was Beijing “the start price”. But Shenzhen is crazier, on February 15, Shenzhen sells 51 set of new home housing, finalized a deal the even price is 91965 Yuan/even, breaks 90,000 critical junctions. The Shanghai real estate market is the sale is irritable, in just past in 2015, Shanghai surpassed 1,400,000,000,000 Yuan total deal amounts to become the global most senior branch real estate market. This is the aspect which the Chinese real estate market rises suddenly crazily.

 

 Real fear, after if the real estate market froth punctures, but also has anything to be possible to take on supports the heavy responsibility which the Chinese economy continues to grow. Perhaps, this has groundless fears, some analyzes said that the real estate market prosperous times had not ended, is really?

 

 1st, actually keeps in stock how many?

 

 Now the people are familiar with 700,000,000 square meters summarize the immediately real estate market goods in stock, this had underestimated seriously the real estate market faces the stern supply and demand is unbalanced. This 700,000,000 square meters are only treat sell the area. If adds on outside the commodity apartment again the safeguard room, the public construction and the unit from construct and so on, then the area surpasses 8,000,000,000 square meters possibly, the commodity apartment is constructing only and treats sells surpasses 5,000,000,000 square meters.

 

 If considered only a commodity apartment item, keeps in stock the pressure has in a big way? in 2015 whole year the commodity apartment sells about 1,300,000,000 square meters, the new operation also slightly is more than this possibly, therefore in 2015 the real estate keeps in stock the progress which melts not to be big. Goes to the real estate market to keep in stock only has reduces the new operation and the land purchase. Therefore in the next 2-3 year, the investment in real estates maintenance - 10% will arrive at the zero growth, the new operation will recede to 10 square meters below is the only way out gradually.

 

 2nd, the real estate finance risk is much big?

 

 

 1st, actually keeps in stock how many?

 

 Now the people are familiar with 700,000,000 square meters summarize the immediately real estate market goods in stock, this had underestimated seriously the real estate market faces the stern supply and demand is unbalanced. This 700,000,000 square meters are only treat sell the area. If adds on outside the commodity apartment again the safeguard room, the public construction and the unit from construct and so on, then the area surpasses 8,000,000,000 square meters possibly, the commodity apartment is constructing only and treats sells surpasses 5,000,000,000 square meters.

 

 If considered only a commodity apartment item, keeps in stock the pressure has in a big way? in 2015 whole year the commodity apartment sells about 1,300,000,000 square meters, the new operation also slightly is more than this possibly, therefore in 2015 the real estate keeps in stock the progress which melts not to be big. Goes to the real estate market to keep in stock only has reduces the new operation and the land purchase. Therefore in the next 2-3 year, the investment in real estates maintenance - 10% will arrive at the zero growth, the new operation will recede to 10 square meters below is the only way out gradually.

 

 2nd, the real estate finance risk is much big?

 

 Involves the real estate finance the storage quantity population to be quite huge, including mortgage loan, development loan, housing common reserve fund loan, debt financing and so on. Should also include the few foreign loans and the land possibly receives Chu to reorganize core the loan. The sketchiest estimate mode is, the home-buyer discusses the loan and the common reserve fund loan approximately 13,000,000,000,000; Develops the investment every year according to the real estate approximately 9,000,000,000,000, the developer self-provides and borrows into the fund to be possible to supply approximately 18 year development reckoning, approximately 15,000,000,000,000; At present 5,000,000,000 square meter inventory values approximately 10,000,000,000,000, then sub-total approximately 25,000,000,000,000.

 

 From this looked, demand side 13,000,000,000,000 and supplies side 25,000,000,000,000, total approximately 38,000,000,000,000. I.e., the Chinese real estate profession's amount of financing occupies to the bank credit compared to approximately in 15%-20%, this is a relatively low estimate. At present looked that the real estate finance's population bad is also quite low.

 

 Once commodity apartment recession in price will often affect to the entity enterprise's loan mass. Considered the real estate is constructing huge area, therefore continues recession in price will bring the goods in stock depreciation possibly, will be constructing the rotten tail.

 

 We thought that the Chinese real estate finance risk is huge, but is not predecessor the Banking Regulatory Commission people in charge said that even if the house price falls 30% to be even more lossless banking industry to be also steady. Whether our not clear recent years' finance Supervisory department did make the excess pressure test. We believed shallowly, China financial system withstands the house price downward with difficulty 30% direct and spill-over effect.

 

 3rd, whether the land finance does crash?

 

 Many people worried that the Chinese real estate market downward causes Local authority's land finance to be difficult to sustain possibly the hand. After tax distribution system reform, the Local authority lost the main tax source basically, in the source of wealth has received, governance submersion. at the beginning of 2005 start, the land finance has acted the Local authority important addition source of wealth, in 2013 the Chinese land sells the income gold to achieve peak value the close 4,000,000,000,000 Yuan, but drops to insufficient possibly in 2015 2,000,000,000,000, from now on several years will keep in stock along with the real estate market, the land fees from sales total amount will continue to wither possibly. How to evaluate every year which this already and continued to lose to surpass 2,000,000,000,000 Yuan lands to sell the income the pressure which brought to the local finance?

 

 We believed that from present and 45 observations, the local finance most painful factor does not lie in the land finance question.

 

 We need to understand the land finance's impact from many angles.

 

 First, undergoes near 3 year finance and taxation reform, the place property rights is weaker, but is not stronger, relies on the central level funds transfer payment. Looking from the expenditure, complete financial resource 85% by local finance disbursement. Therefore the financial pressure is not simplex manifests in the place and the basic unit finance, but more to central level funds transfer.

 

 Second, after undergoing the place storage quantity debt replacement, the local finance had endured difficultly temporarily in 2014, the situation slightly is now good.

 

 Third, Local authority's land sells the net income rate not to be high, probably in 10%-15%, its basically sells the income with the commodity apartment development's land, subsidizes the industrial exploitation campus, the awning modifies with the place necessary capital construction and so on disbursement. On the surface looked that the Local authority land sold the income volume to reduce above largely 2,000,000,000,000, the actual deflation increased the available financial resource also on every year 3,400,000,000,000.

 

 But the land finance's atrophy causes the Local authority inevitably to the industry, to the urban construction, reduces greatly to the capital construction project's place co-funding ability. Therefore our sketchy judgment is, even if the land fees from sales will continue from now on in 35 years murkily, is also not initiates the pecuniary embarrassment the primary factor. The Chinese finance faces does the true challenge lie in the fragment, whether the payment leads the high social security system to be able to withstand the aging impact. However the land finance brings the development zone to be depressed, the urban construction dilatory incapable is inevitable.

 

 4th, the real estate market succeeds the opportunity which keeps in stock to be big?

 

 How does the real estate market keep in stock whether to succeed? This very difficult to define, we thought that the stock was equal to 2 years were constructing add on 3 month-long to treat sell may say approximately were reasonable. But each month possible to melt probably is 120,000,000 square meters, if kept in stock drops to 3,300,000,000 square meters to be possible saying that approximately the real estate market normalized. Sells 1,400,000,000 square meters according to every year, the new operation is not higher than 1,000,000,000 square meters calculations every year, the Chinese real estate market keeps in stock the process to need to maintain approximately for 4 years, returns to 2019 around to keep in stock normally basically.

 

 Achieves the opportunity which melts to have in a big way? Is decided is also decided in the market by the policy. The real estate regulation's policy subsequent party we later again theory, observe the key in this us the market factor.

 

 First, the Chinese urbanization rate only then 55%, the migration still will still continue, this has reached as high as 80% differences with Japan in the 20th century 70's mid and late part urbanization rate to be very big. The urban immigrants and the farmer marketability about 200,000,000 treats the urbanized population, its potential continually will still release at least in 8-10.

 

 Second, the urbanization rate enhancement can bring the real estate update transformation demand, by 3 - 350,000,000 household urban families, even if by the year turnover rate 2.5% estimates, this demand may reach every year approximately 8,000,000 set of housing demands.

 

 Third, in the Chinese big or media-sized cities, completed the age to be earlier than 1998 town center obsolete house, often was the government or state-owned enterprise's housing reform room, had approximately 5,000,000,000 square meters at least, carried on the contingency through the administrative strength which the obsolete house opened modifies also still to exist. Looks like, if the Chinese economy and the resident income do not have remarkable worsening, the Chinese real estate market maintains micro adds melts the speed, and will achieve the market force in the next four years which kept in stock still very much to have the possibility.

 

 5th, real estate regulation policy subsequent party?

 

 Difficult produces from the coal steel and iron can the process, as well as restricted policy subsequent party, the people associated the Chinese real estate. Actually the real estate and industry's difference is very big.

 

 First, the real estate produces indifferently can the question, only then the stock question, produces can the question be construction contractor's matter;

 

 Second, because realtor's property does not matter special-purpose the question, the workshop machinery equipment it high special-purpose and the technology amortizes, causes its handling to be thorny, but the house does not have this identity approximately.

 

 Third, the developer state-owned enterprise occupies is relatively lower than, the developer is merely as a whole a chief contractor, the employed personnels not many, and the fluidity is huge. Real estate crisis's impact mainly finance finance question, but is not produces can or is employed the question.

 

 Compares with the entity economy, the real estate policy regulation subsequent party also calculates relatively amply. At present has adopted the method has included 45 period no longer has guarantees the room construction cycle of songs the absolute requirement, relaxes limits purchases limits the loan, reduces business loan and the common reserve fund threshold and so on. We are not difficult the policy subsequent party which observes adopts possibly.

 

 First, the creation Country Housing Bank, may get up the land's the common reserve fund core conformity, imitation room US, the room Libya and US model, provides the government for the ordinary housing and the safeguard room sale the guarantee and the loan on favorable terms.

 

 Second, to commercial presence's interest burden, the part arrives buckles a tax; Or lowers the low deed tax, the storage quantity room transaction taxes and fees and so on.

 

 Third, the safeguard room part expansion monetization compensation placement, in which available “the room ticket” the model reduces the Local authority currency compensation pressure, simultaneously adds the actual relocation placement the housing demand. So-called “the room ticket” is the Local authority provides, may purchase the cash only for the relocated household which the house uses to substitute the ticket. Considered that the national currency compensation placement amounts to 1,500,000 households to 2015, therefore “the room ticket” the action, may with the existing relocation placement, with the future farmer resident process union use.

 

 Fourth, financial methods and so on mortgage loan securitizations, as well as and different will care for the aged the union by the room retirement, will encourage 12 cities old-age population backflow hometown retirement and so on. Because since 1998 the Chinese real estate regulation has tossed about blindly by the non-marketability primarily, has left behind many subsequent parties luckily for the next policy regulation.

 

 We have no intention to deny the Chinese real estate market, regardless of looked from the area from the amount, is very possible already is the human throughout history biggest froth, but compares with the miserable circumstances entity economy, China was very possible still to have the real estate market to have soft landing's lucky condition. The key will lie in the future five year market and the policy.

 b

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